Avalanche advisories with hazard ratings will begin once we collect more data and gain a more thorough understanding of the snowpack. We are collecting data currently, but your observations are very valuable to us. Please drop us a line with what you are seeing out there. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org or call 406.758.5208.
A potent storm system continues to affect the mountains of northwest Montana. The Swan Range appears to be the big winner thus far with this storm. Noisy Basin SNOTEL site has recorded 2.8 inches of SWE and about 25 inches of snowfall in the past 24 hours (as of 7:00 p.m. Saturday night), and snow is still accumulating. Other remote weather stations and SNOTEL sites in the Whitefish Range and northern Flathead Range/southern Glacier Park are showing about 1 inch of SWE and 8-10 inches of snow accumulation in the past 24 hours.
Winds were mostly out of the south today at 5-20 mph, but switched direction to coming out of the north-northeast at most locations at 15-20 mph, but still out of the south at others. The infiltration of the arctic air mass dropping out of Canada has caused temperatures in the northern Flathead Range/southern Glacier Park to begin falling to 10-20° F.
Snow will continue through tonight and tomorrow. Most areas will potentially see another 6-10 inches tonight through Sunday. The Swan Range may see more than this amount through tomorrow. Temperatures will drop to 15-25° F tomorrow before the cold air mass begins to exit the region.
It is game on in regards to avalanches in the backcountry right now. The red flags for instability are all present: recent (and continuing) intense precipitation, wind, recent avalanche activity. We ventured into the Jewel Basin today and found over 2 feet of new snow thus far from this current storm. It was snowing all day (~1 inch/hour) and we saw evidence of natural avalanches on all aspects, cracking on steep slopes, and localized collapsing. We found an interface about 6-12 inches from the surface to be the layer at which these avalanches were occurring, and this was evident in our stability tests (video). However, with more snow and wind through at least Sunday, we could begin to see larger and more destructive avalanches over the next day or so.
It’s important to note that the Swan Range was favored in this storm and is, at this point, the only observations we have received/collected. The other mountain ranges also received a bit less snow than the Swan Range. Until we have more information about the snowpack in these other areas we will not issue hazard ratings.
Regardless of where you are traveling there is now certainly enough snow for avalanches to occur. Even if these avalanches are small, you can still go for a nasty ride. It is still the early season and we are all still a bit rusty with our avalanche gear and skills. Remember to check your beacon and replace the batteries, and make sure your shovel and probe are also in great working order. This is also a great time of year (and with enough snow) to practice using your beacon.
We will update avalanche conditions as necessary and will begin issuing advisories with hazard ratings once we have more data and information. So, remember, please send us your observations. Be safe!